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We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall.Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias. The number of traders net-long is 13.95% higher than yesterday and 2.45% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 19.54% lower than yesterday and 6.17% lower from last week. Retail trader data show 61.82% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.62 to 1. The UK economy is expected to have contracted in September, it just remains to be seen by how much.
Sterling needs a fundamental boost and tomorrow’s latest UK GDP figures may, or may not, provide this.
#USD BRITISH POUND SERIES#
One positive for cable is the recent break of a series of lower highs that had defined the move lower. The pair continue to reject 1.1400 and with a cluster of recent high prints all the way up to the 1.1650 area, any upside is going to be limited and hard fought for. The latest CME Fed Watch Tool shows a 54.5% chance of a 50bp hike and a 45.5% chance of a 75bp increase.įor all market-moving data releases and economic events see the DailyFX Calendar.Ĭable’s reaction to yesterday’s sell-off and the easing of risk sentiment today is negligible so far. Today’s report will be closely parsed in light of recent commentary from some Fed voting members who have been hinting that the central bank may not go for another oversized (75bps) rate hike in December. Is expected to have nudged 0.1% lower to 6.5% in October, while the headline rate is seen two-tenths of a percent lower at 8%. Later today, the latest US inflation report (13:30GMT) will be released to an eager market.
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